JOBS

The recovery from the 2001 recession is slow, but it’s coming in terms of employment growth, area economists say. Local experts see more jobs in 2007, but the climate is nothing better than tepid.

“We’re going to see moderate growth this year – employment should grow from 2 to 2.5 percent,´ said Tom Miller, executive director of Workforce Boulder County.

“One of the things that will grow is the oil mining and gas stuff,” he said. “I don’t know what impact it will have on the Front Range, but if you go to Mesa County they’re aggressively looking for people to work.”

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Alexandra Hall, director of labor market information for the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, agrees that she sees growth in the mining sectors and professional services. She was, however, realistic in her predictions of growth.

“You can expect employment growth to continue to be moderate,” she said.

Miller says he sees growth points locally in manufacturing, retail, information and educational services.
“Manufacturing has been really interesting – it’s really holding its own,” he said. “Despite the fact that it took a big hit in 2001.”

Last year Workforce Boulder County saw 500 job openings in manufacturing compared to the 360 job openings the year before.

Similarly, Workforce has 428 retail job openings compared to the 290 openings the year before, educational openings jumped from 30 to 100 openings and health-care job listings also raised from 108 to 206 openings.
Unemployment in Boulder is currently at 3.6 percent.

“We’re back to lower unemployment, but there are still a lot of people looking for jobs out there. I think a lot of people are looking for better jobs – they’re doing a job but feel they are qualified to do a better job,” he said.

Tucker Hart Adams created an annual economic forecast for US Bank that was released in September.

“I expect to see a little job growth – about 1.4 percent for the state, around 32,000 jobs,” Adams said.

However, she is more pessimistic about unemployment rates and staying out of a recession.

“The unemployment rate will raise 1.5 percent at the end of the year. The consumer just won’t be able to afford to spend at the rate he had. Mortgage payments are adjusting to a higher interest rate and consumers will have to start paying off their debt,” she explained.

When asked what it would take for conditions to improve, Adams laughed and replied “a miracle.”

“Company profits would have to remain strong, and they will have to pass the profits to workers in higher wages,” he said. “And instead of spending money the consumer needs to pay of debt. Then we might muddle through without a recession.”

John Cody, president of the Longmont Area Economic Council, is looking at more of the nuts and bolts before he makes his predictions.

“I think business-to-business spending – companies who don’t sell directly to customers – will remain strong,” he said. “The opportunity for growth will exist – businesses are spending on IT and a lot of other things. If they continue, there’s your opportunity for growth.”

However, Cody is more realistic when he looks at consumer products.

“The consumer sector will contract next year. The slowdown in the housing sector has a ripple effect – consumers aren’t buying new garden tools, furniture, etc.,” he said.

Statewide

According to the Colorado Business Economic Outlook 2007 by the University of Colorado’s Leeds School of Business Research Division, employment will increase at 1.4 percent in 2007, a slightly lower rate than the 1.5 percent increase in 2006. With fewer jobs being added in 2007 and the population growth exceeding the growth of the labor force, the unemployment rate will again reach 5 percent. In 2007 the sectors of the economy with the highest absolute growth will be professional business services, trade, transportation and utilities, leisure and hospitality, education and health services and government.